The worst bitcoin price forecasts for 2020 prove that predicting the price of the biggest digital currency is as hard as guessing the numbers of a winning lottery ticket. In 2017, some people predicted the price of Bitcoin to reach $ 35,000 to $ 50,000, and some people like John McAfee even went as far as to predict that this digital currency would reach the price of one million dollars. Although some of these predictions were based on bitcoin fundamental factors, others were completely irrational. Except for a few analysts, many people's predictions turned out to be incorrect and went viral as Internet jokes and memes. In this article, we will look at some of the strangest predictions about the price of Bitcoin in 2020.
The problem is compounded by the fact that some of these predictions have been made by staunch opponents of Bitcoin, such as gold prospector Peter Schiff and Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University's School of Business. As a result, in some cases, personal credibility is less important than efficient analytical models.
One month after the market crashed on March 12, 2020, causing Bitcoin to fall by 50 percent to $ 3,750, PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, stated that Bitcoin was priced at less than $ 8,200. At the time, no one expected the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall sharply to $ 40, its most significant drop since 1987, and the decline in Texas oil futures.Despite PlanB's bizarre claim, his prediction is not among the worst in 2020 because almost no one expected the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the market. In addition, well-known analyst Peter Brandt made the same mistake, stating in January that the price of bitcoin would never be less than $ 6,000.
The $ 24,000 price forecast by CryptoWhale quantum model in mid-2022
On June 2, 2020, a well-known digital currency analyst on Twitter, CryptoWhale, introduced the Quantum model, which predicts the price of bitcoin. According to CryptoWhale, this model has been effectively predicting significant price fluctuations since 2018.The inefficiency of this model can be perceived by looking at the minimum price of $ 2,000 in 2020 and the upward trend in the price of Bitcoin to $ 24,000 in mid-2022. In any case, the quantum particles, molecules, and atoms that were supposed to accurately predict the price of bitcoin had nothing but mere errors.
Two lessons can be learned from the quantum model and they are as follows:
-Having a large number of followers on social media does not necessarily mean better price forecasting.
-Complex models, like humans, are prone to error. Assessing a new asset in the midst of the inefficiency of the central bank's monetary easing policy is not at all easy.
Ross Ulbricht predicts a 9-month downtrend after Black Thursday
It was in April that Ross Ulbricht, founder of the Dark Web Silk Road market, said that bitcoin fluctuations, especially the March 12 price drop, were likely to lead to a downturn in the market over a period of 3 to 9 months . At the time, Bitcoin was priced at around $ 7,000, which was still affected by a 50% drop. Exactly 17 days after Ulbricht made a comment, the price of Bitcoin increased by 30% to $ 9,000 which completely contradicted his analysis. According to Ulbricht, the bitcoin market forecast was to increase by 300% from December 2018 to June 2019. In addition, Ross's proposed price correction was not in line with Bitcoin's past performance because even in the worst era of Bitcoin in December 2019, the price of this digital currency was more than 100% of the previous year's minimum price.
Panxora CEO Gavin Smith said in an interview with Forbes on July 27, 2020 that he expects a final price of $ 7,000 for this year. Gavin added that before the real uptrend occurs, we will see the market fall.
Smith said that despite the acceptance of bitcoin due to the protection of capital against inflation, the impact of the demand shock on the economy could lead to a further decline in the price of bitcoin.
The forecast came after 80 days of bitcoin prices hovering around $ 9,500. At the time, despite a 100 percent increase over the mid-March floor, there were still doubts about whether Bitcoin could break the $ 10,000 resistance level.
$ 50,000 Bitcoin Price Forecast for 2020 by Anthony Trenchev
On January 3, 2020, Nexo co-founder Antoni Trenchev said that Bitcoin could easily reach $ 50,000 by 2020.
Despite his highly optimistic predictions, Tranchev's view lacked rationality. According to Trenchev, Bitcoin could have become the new gold, and Smith cited the lack of correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets as one of the potential reasons for the price increase.